SpaceX’s planned IPO is more than just a mega-IPO. It could become a stress test for passive investors, and with OpenAI and Anthropic, the next mega-IPO candidates are already in the starting blocks. Our Head of Portfolio Management, Jörg Held, explains why index providers are already rolling out the red carpet and what this means for ETFs and active investors.
The illustrious group of the “Magnificent Seven” will soon be joined by three more companies. SpaceX is set to be listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with an expected offering size of $40 billion to $80 billion and a company valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2.0 trillion. June 12 could thus mark the start of the biggest “Friends & Family Trade” of all time. It would be the largest initial public offering in history. OpenAI is targeting an IPO in the fourth quarter of 2026, and Anthropic could follow shortly before the end of the year. In total, we’re talking about roughly $3 to $3.4 trillion, which is likely to be reflected in some way in the major indices.
The Magnificent Seven will soon become the Magnificent Ten. This will result in a level of index concentration not seen since the 1930s.
Old indexing rules for a new scale
The problem: The old index rules weren’t designed for companies of this size. The 12-month “seasoning” rule, profitability requirements, and minimum free-float rules – all of these make sense for typical IPOs. But not for companies that could rank among the top ten in the U.S. from day one.
That’s why index providers have made adjustments and are rolling out the red carpet. The rules are being tailored to companies that are simply too large for standard IPO criteria.
The Nasdaq 100 has had a new fast-entry rule in place since May 1, 2026. Any company that ranks among the top 40 (by market capitalization) after seven trading days can be included in the index after 15 trading days. There is no longer a seasoning rule. The old 10 percent minimum rule for freely tradable shares has also been eliminated; shares with a low free float are capped in terms of index weighting.
Adjustments are also currently being made to the S&P 500: The seasoning rule is set to be halved from twelve to six months. For megacaps, the rules regarding freely tradable shares – and even the profitability requirement – are to be eliminated.
FTSE Russell is also considering a fast-track index inclusion process.
The passive serve
In today’s ETF-centric world, this affects every investor. Index trackers account for 25 to 30 percent of daily S&P 500 trading volume. As soon as a stock’s inclusion in the index is confirmed, the trackers must buy the new index components – no matter the price. With three additions of this magnitude, we’re talking about mandatory purchases in the double-digit billions.
Anyone who secures an allocation in these stocks holds a rare asset. Everyone else will have to pay the passive premium – thereby driving up the book values of existing shareholders.
Magnificent Ten: Focus instead of diversification
The Magnificent Seven currently account for about 34 percent of the S&P 500. With the addition of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, they could become the Magnificent Ten, with an index weighting of about 40 percent.
For investors, this is not just a technical footnote. Those who invest passively aren’t just buying the market; they’re increasingly buying into the index’s concentration of a few megacaps.
What active investors should consider now
For active investors, the mission is clear: It’s not about blindly chasing the biggest story. It’s about identifying early on where index flows, revaluations, and shifts in relative weightings create opportunities or risks that can be leveraged proactively and flexibly to generate added value for investors. That is our goal and what active management – as opposed to index tracking – should deliver for investors.
At ETHENEA, we are currently maintaining our positions in select FANG+ stocks and will reassess our holdings well in advance of the SpaceX IPO. We are also already heavily positioned in the underwriting banks appointed for SpaceX’s IPO, particularly with an eye toward the expected additional market transactions. Furthermore, our investors have benefited indirectly from the sharp rise in valuations of the space-sector stocks in which we already hold exposure.
Note: This text was translated using AI and may contain translation errors. The German version of the text is authoritative.